Article by Manu Koenig, Supervisor 1st District, and is the vice chair of the RTC. This post HAS been fact checked.

Risk Assessments

Lots of new information on the trail options for the rail corridor has emerged in the last month. That's because the RTC is actively designing both an "interim trail" (similar to the Greenway Initiative - Yes on D) and an "ultimate trail" (based on the long-standing Rail and Trail plan - No on D). Both options are being cleared with the same environmental impact report. This is the first time ever that the two trail options are being compared.

The RTC explained that there are risks associated with both the "interim trail" (Yes on D) as well as the "ultimate trail" (No on D) options. The info could be useful to you as you consider how to vote on Measure D, the Greenway Initiative. This info has been adapted from page 248 of the May 5th RTC Agenda.

Risks Associated with the Interim Trail (Yes on D)

• Right-of-Way. Railbanking is required and this falls under the jurisdiction of the Federal Surface Transportation Board (STB). There are no guarantees as to the outcome. With cooperation, railbanking could be completed in as short as 6-months. With opposition, a determination could take 2 - 3 years and could potentially delay the implementation of some trail segments. The STB would make its determination based on the viability of freight beyond Watsonville, the current condition of the rail line and the cost associated with its repair.

Risks Associated with the Ultimate Trail (No on D)

• Funding. The ultimate trail alignment is approximately $100 million more expensive than the interim trail alignment, once financing and related project costs are considered; therefore, the ultimate trail will use more of our tax revenues and need larger grant awards to construct. The higher cost reduces the probability of grant awards and creates a risk to project delivery. The higher cost also reduces funding for future segments of the trail construction and maintenance and may jeopardize the completion of the planned 32-mile program.

• Engineering challenges. The ultimate trail alignment requires significant structural solutions due to challenging geographical features. These include many new bridges, retaining walls, and floating viaducts.

• Environmental impacts. Still being analyzed to determine potential mitigation measures. 

• Right-of-Way. The ultimate trail alignment requires the acquisition of private property, which, like railbanking, is not completely within the control of the RTC.

Other things we learned:

• Trail maintenance has not been budgeted for yet. Staff estimates that routine trail maintenance for 18-miles of a typical active transportation trail could total $79 million over the next 24 years, not including longer-term trail rehabilitation cost. To put this in context, the funding measure that makes trail construction possible provides $85 million over the course of 30 years ($2.8 million per year).

• The latest bids for the Rail and Trail Segment 7 Phase II in the City of Santa Cruz came in $2 million more (20% higher) than expected. This segment behind Neary Lagoon is being built with the same alignment as the "ultimate trail" - No on D plan. It will cost $12 million for under 1 mile of trail because of the engineering required for a 20ft retaining wall.

• The bid to fix the Pajaro River Rail Bridge in Watsonville came in 500% more than expected. The Commission rejected the bid per the recommendation of staff and is exploring other options.

• Less than 52 freight rail cars per year are being delivered to Watsonville. It would take 1,000 freight cars per year for any freight service to break even (a 20x increase from today).

• RTC Legal Counsel provided answers to my questions and those of Commissioner Andy Shiffrin regarding Measure D. You can read them here. Notably, the passage of Measure D will not prevent the RTC from studying or pursuing funds for passenger rail if needed. 

At the May 5th meeting, the RTC voted not to commit toward one trail option or the other out of respect to the vote on Measure D on June 7th.

Our next RTC meeting will be June 2nd. More information is available here.