Double-Down on Joby?
Imagine this: you’re at an airshow. The announcer’s voice crackles over the loudspeaker: “Ladies and gentlemen, prepare for takeoff!” A sleek eVTOL (electric vertical take-off and landing) craft rises dramatically, flips upside down midair, and performs a triple corkscrew before zooming off in the opposite direction. It’s thrilling, unpredictable, and a little confusing. Welcome to The Motley Fool’s evolving opinion on Joby Aviation.
Earlier this year, the Fool published a skeptical article about Joby, listing all the reasons it was a risky venture: sky-high valuations, cash burn rivaling a rocket launch, and fierce competition from other eVTOL players like Archer. The takeaway? This bird might never leave the nest.
But now? Oh, now it’s a different story. Suddenly, Joby is the captain of the air taxi revolution, gliding confidently through FAA certifications and ready to soar to new heights. What changed? Was there an epiphany in the Fool’s cockpit? Did someone discover a hidden stash of optimism in the cargo hold?
Let’s dive into this remarkable flight path reversal and see what’s fueling the new enthusiasm.
Turbulence in the Skies
Back in the “Joby skepticism” days, the analysis read like a concerned parent watching their kid attempt their first bike ride without training wheels.
“Too much risk!” they cried. “What if it falls? What if Archer speeds by and leaves Joby eating rotor dust?” The tone was cautious, the optimism reserved for companies with a proven ability to stay airborne (hello, Tesla and Netflix references). Joby, to The Fool, seemed like a scrappy dreamer with no guarantee of success—just another startup trying to defy gravity.
The Loop-the-Loop
Fast forward to today. Suddenly, the cautious, arms-crossed “not sure about this” stance has been replaced by unbridled enthusiasm. In their latest piece, The Motley Fool practically cartwheeled into the “Buy Joby Now!” camp, emphasizing Joby’s recent achievements:
Joby’s progress through FAA certifications (“first to complete three of five stages” sounds like a reality show elimination round, but okay).
Its partnerships with Toyota and the Department of Defense (no biggie, just a couple of global powerhouses backing this startup).
A reminder that the stock has already climbed 33% in 2024, leaving the S&P 500 in the dust.
The article reads like it’s written by someone who’s discovered they can fly and is now yelling, “What are you waiting for? Join me in the clouds!”
Why the Change of Heart?
To understand this dramatic shift, we need to look at The Motley Fool’s internal “mental cockpit.” Here’s what I suspect happened:
Fear of Missing Out (FOMO): When Joby’s stock soared 33%, The Fool probably glanced at the leaderboard and thought, “Wait, are we… are we wrong about this?” Nothing lights a fire under analysts like watching a stock climb while you’re stuck on the ground.
The FAA Boost: Joby’s certification progress is like leveling up in a video game. Stage 3 of 5? That’s 60% of the way to commercial glory, which is apparently enough to flip The Fool from skeptic to cheerleader.
The Magic of Momentum: Positive news tends to snowball. First, Joby gains altitude with certification news. Then analysts notice. Then the stock climbs higher, and suddenly it’s a “potentially lucrative opportunity” instead of a risky gamble. It’s a classic case of momentum bias, and Joby is riding the wave.
The Comedy of Contradiction
What makes this reversal so funny is how sudden and absolute it feels. Just months ago, Joby was an unproven upstart with too many challenges. Now? It’s a budding superstar, poised to redefine urban transportation and, perhaps, human history. Did Joby’s fundamentals really change that much in such a short time, or did The Motley Fool just get swept up in the hype?
The truth is probably somewhere in the middle. Joby’s progress is impressive, but the risks remain. FAA certification isn’t a done deal, and the commercial air taxi market is untested. Still, the drama of the Fool’s 180-degree pivot makes for excellent entertainment.
Final Descent
If The Motley Fool’s opinions were an eVTOL, they’d be the most exciting ride in town. One minute you’re plummeting toward the ground (Joby is too risky!), the next you’re soaring above the clouds (Joby is the future!). It’s a thrilling—and dizzying—spectacle to watch.
So, what’s the takeaway for investors? Maybe it’s that opinions, like aircraft, can change direction mid-flight. Or maybe it’s that the only thing more unpredictable than the stock market is how analysts feel about it. Either way, buckle up and enjoy the ride—Joby Aviation’s journey is far from over.
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