2025 Predictions by Santa Cruz Works Board
We requested the 2024 Santa Cruz Works Board (and one non-board member) to leverage their industry expertise and insights to forecast the developments our community can anticipate in 2025. Here are their predictions by gazing into our magical crystal ball, accompanied by a disclaimer clarifying that these forecasts are speculative and do not involve any confirmed policies or actions:
LeBaron Meyers
My general prediction: AI’s growing effectiveness will amplify the need for uniquely human skills that cannot (yet?!?) be replicated like emotional intelligence, true connection and nuanced thinking. While AI will enhance performance within specific silos, true optimization will occur with leaders who foster collaboration and healthy communication across the silos. These leaders will be best positioned to sustain growth and drive lasting impact to solve our greatest challenges.
My local prediction: Doug Erickson will surf and travel more, and work (slightly) less. He will remain an active community pillar, ambassador and connector for Santa Cruz Works and beyond— because it's in his DNA. But he will also help bring on a new fantastic Executive Director as his successor to steward our entrepreneurial ecosystem to the next stage, and build upon the legacy that he has tirelessly worked to create.
Board President SC Works, Founder Executive Coach
David Doolin
The year 2025 was already set to bring significant changes to the tax landscape with federal income tax rates set to increase in 2026. Many provisions that have been very favorable to small businesses (a large part of the economic engine of Santa Cruz County) are also set to expire at the end of 2025, including the qualified business income deduction, which reduces business owners’ federal tax rates from 37% to less than 30%. Additionally, accelerated depreciation methods and a favorable state income tax deduction will expire at the end of 2025.
The incoming administration has already stated that they intend to work to extend these provisions and eliminate the requirement that technology companies capitalize research and development expenses (a tremendously costly disincentive to innovate which was put into place by the incoming administration when they were last in office) but slim margins in Congress will make any changes in the tax law very difficult to achieve. That combined with potential tariffs on the materials used in products created by local companies and severe limitations on our ability to bring in foreign workers will make it a very uncertain year.
The bottom line is this year, more than ever, it is important that you maintain active and regular communication with your professional advisors on how all these things could affect your business.
Treasurer Santa Cruz Works, Senior Partner PP&Co.
Jacob Martinez
My predication: Three skills that AI cannot replace—curiosity, collaboration, and creativity—will be the cornerstone of workforce preparedness.
Secretary Santa Cruz Works, Founder & CEO, Digital NEST
Alexi Sevastopoulos
As we prepare to step boldly into 2025 amid major shifts in leadership, I believe the upcoming year will be a turning point across multiple domains, with breakthroughs that will begin to reshape how we think, work, and live. Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. In 2025, quantum computing is expected to catalyze transformative breakthroughs across multiple industries including medicine and cybersecurity, heralding a new era of general computing. Concurrently, the AI sector may witness a leadership shift as new contenders challenge OpenAI's dominance, suggesting a volatile yet innovative future. In finance, stablecoins are poised to redefine digital transactions with enhanced efficiency and reliability, encouraging broader adoption. Environmental consciousness will intensify, driven by escalating climate crises, prompting a surge in sustainable corporate practices and consumer behavior. Meanwhile, the agricultural sector faces significant challenges, particularly for undocumented workers, underscoring the need for equitable technological advancements. Lastly, a resurgence in mergers, acquisitions, and IPOs is expected by year-end, signaling renewed economic optimism and the potential rise of the first one-person unicorn company, showcasing the profound impact of AI and automation on entrepreneurial endeavors.
GP of Santa Cruz Ventures
UCSC, SC Ventures. SC Works
With 2024 coming to a close, I am excited about the opportunities that lie ahead for UC Santa Cruz in the new year. Today's highlight was an invigorating discussion with Alexi Sevastopoulos (Santa Cruz Ventures), Doug Erickson (Santa Cruz Works) and John MacMillan (UCSC VC Research) about ways to increase support for startups. By fostering entrepreneurs through the early phases of venture development, more companies will emerge from the boundless creativity of UCSC students, faculty and researchers and have a positive impact on the world.
Cindy Larive, Chancellor UCSC
Allison Steitz
In 2025, I predict Santa Cruz will grow GDP by 5%+, fueled by initiatives advancing preventative healthcare, climate resilience, and workforce development. Local businesses will thrive by 1) launching valuable products faster with AI, 2) boosting cash flow through payment solutions for revenue collection and spend control, 3) diversifying treasuries with Bitcoin investments, and 4) enhancing wellness benefits for employees. Growth will come from public-private partnerships tackling demands in healthcare, climate-adapted infrastructure, and sustainable agriculture and manufacturing. While housing affordability and workforce shortages remain challenges, Santa Cruz’s vibrant ecosystems in innovation, art, and wellness will drive solutions and success.
Head of Product & Operations, Teampay & Paystand
Bonnie Scott Lipsomb
In 2025, the City of Santa Cruz will intensify its focus on technology and partnerships within the tech industry by implementing a new policy that will mandate the use of AI-generated staff reports for all City Council meetings. Additionally, the city will collaborate with Joby Aviation to introduce a "community day" on April 1st, where residents of Santa Cruz will be able to register for free aerial ridesharing trips to San Jose International Airport, showcasing an innovative approach to urban mobility.
Director of Economic Development, City of Santa Cruz
Desha Staley-Raatior
I predict there will be funding challenges within the education sector but colleges & universities will still be able to connect students to a variety of valuable work experience opportunities through internships and apprenticeships with our local employers.
Career Development Director, Cabrillo College
Drew Meyer
A compelling AI use case for "regular folks" wlll arise in some form, such as a meaningful personal assistant capability, accounting/finance application, manned / unmanned flight, or more effective smart home and property automation.Not surprisingly, the new congress will remain hopelessly behind the regulatory curve, continuing to stoke fears about foreign-owned tech company interference while unfolds under our collective noses.
Federal government Infrastructure investment from bills passed in 2024 will roll out across America, including rural broadband access accelerating information exchange for millions of households.
Ex-Amazon
Doug Erickson
I predict accelerated growth in entrepreneurship across Monterey and Santa Cruz counties, driven by advancements in AI for business viability and planning. This will be further fueled by increased engagement from City and State Economic Development, UCSC, Cabrillo, CSUMB, and local high schools in fostering entrepreneurial skills and creativity through experiential learning.
Founder & ED of Santa Cruz Works
Hilary Bryant
In 2025, we are going to do what Santa Cruz does best— collaborate joyfully, innovate, and support each other. We are most effective when we act locally.
We will build trust, care for our neighbors, and protect and conserve land in our precious coastal region. We will develop solutions to today’s problems and create opportunities for a more just and equitable tomorrow. Most of all, I see 2025 as a year we strive to make Santa Cruz a place we are all proud to call home.
Ex-Mayor City of Santa Cruz, Community Foundation of Santa Cruz County
James 0’Connor
In 2025, I believe AI will become a true partner in STEM innovation, unlocking potential we’ve only begun to imagine. With tools like generative AI, quantum computing, and automated research platforms, discovery will happen faster and more dynamically than ever. I’m especially excited about breakthroughs in materials science, bioengineering, drug discovery and climate tech—areas where AI’s predictive power will drive real-world solutions. In customer discovery, AI will empower entrepreneurs by transforming complex data into clear, actionable insights. I’m optimistic that this convergence will fuel a new era of rapid, data-driven innovation, making what once seemed impossible a reality. The future feels incredibly promising.
CEO / Founder Innovation Within
Jason Borgen
In 2025, we will lead the integration of generative AI into education and community learning, creating tools that enhance teaching while supporting initiatives like SB 830 and SB 873. Through partnerships with schools, agencies, and policymakers, we will promote AI literacy by empowering educators, students, and families to recognize and evaluate AI-generated content. At local, state, and federal levels, we will advocate for safe, ethical, and transparent AI use. Our efforts will extend globally, sharing frameworks for AI detection and responsible implementation. By driving innovation, collaboration, and policy development, we will shape the future of education with responsible AI practices.
Chief Technology & Innovations Officer (CTiO), Santa Cruz County Office of Education
Jon Sisk
With regards to the local housing environment, I predict that with the onslaught of high end rental housing coming on the market in 2025 we'll see a slight reduction in rents on the high end… The lower end will still stay stabilized… With regards to the overall economy, I think inflation will continue to be an issue and will slow the economy at a mild rate… putting the federal reserve in an interesting situation where they need to reduce rates to spur the economy, but a cut will increase inflation… So they will sit still on any reductions in the coming year.
Regional President, Chief Banking Officer Santa Cruz County Bank